Episode 4: The Brain Race

Youth unemployment in Canada is at record highs. There is a lot for younger generations to worry about, and not just the big stuff like democracy or climate. What job will AI not replace? Who dares start a family? Can you ever afford a house?  

Episode 4: The Brain Race, will explore some ideas on education, the future of work, and policies that might just help.

Transcript

4: The Brain Race

I’m Patrick Esmonde-White. Welcome to Canada Re-imagined, season three. After the Cataclysm.  

I am sure I am not the only person who, when I was young, had trouble deciding what to study, or what jobs to apply for. As it turned out, I studied political science at Carleton University, trained as an Air Force officer, then met Pierre Trudeau, and the rest is a blur. So … no plan. However, many of my friends did have traditional careers. It was possible.

Now, I try and put myself in the shoes of youth today. There is a lot to worry about, and not just the big stuff like democracy or climate. What job will AI not replace? Who dares start a family? Can you ever afford a house?  I do not envy you on this.

Ahead, in Episode 4: The Brain Race, I’ll explore some ideas on education, the future of work, and policies that might just help.

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I went to university.  Twice.  

My first time ‘round I majored in fun and politics.  Later, I went back to university, and actually studied. 

No question, university was wonderful. I learned what I needed, when I was ready. Over the subsequent six decades, I had a number of careers. Some of my jobs did not even exist when I started.

The same opportunity should be true today.  And indeed, colleges and universities do help youth to explore life, become better citizens, get good jobs, and contribute to the economy. Education is essential for all this, and Canadian universities are, in fact, very, very, good.  That’s the good news.

Now the bad news. Canada has record youth unemployment, at a time when there are jobs without applicants. Something is amiss. There is a disconnect. 

Somehow, we need to have a fresh look at careers and the role of education. Our youth need help.

Let me start with a view from ten thousand feet.

Education is provincial. Let me put public schools aside, and simply look at universities, and at colleges. 

The overall budget for degree granting universities is in the neighbourhood of $50 billion. A bit under half is paid by governments, mostly provincial. Tuition covers less than a third. 

Colleges are more vocational, and practical, with a mix of degrees and certificates. Overall, they have a budget of around $15 billion, half paid by governments.  

Some universities in Canada are elite, among the best in the world. They attract talent, nurture learning, and create the conditions for brilliance to emerge and drive the economy.  It is sometimes called an innovation economy.

Successful countries, like the United States in recent decades, had the power, wealth and size to make their innovation ecosystem grow. That is changing with all the cuts and attacks on universities under Trump.

Canada, by contrast, had less wealth, and fewer people. We prospered because of resources. This can continue, but robots will take many of those jobs. To truly thrive in a future innovation economy, we must be strategic.  Part of the solution is to let our best brains drive the economy, and not be followers. That requires a national innovation strategy, which will not just happen: it must be made to happen.

But that is abstract. The decisions facing youth are more immediate, more real.

A high school graduate can choose college, university, the job market, or simply stay at home.  Many are at this point only starting to get their act together. In my experience, it takes time and a few mistakes to figure out what you want in life. This is normal, and healthy. That is what universities help with.

Once students graduate, of course, they need a job. Those years of education are expected to pay off. If you invest in education, you expect dividends. That is not what the numbers show.

Youth unemployment in Canada is almost 15%, historically high. Five per cent of graduates, 850,000 people, can’t find any job. One in five ends up in work unrelated to their degrees. Technology, robotics and AI are replacing humans in the workplace all the time. New careers may emerge, but nobody has a reliable crystal ball.

My generation should be sympathetic. Six decades ago, we hit the job market in droves. We entered an economy with relatively high unemployment, and low growth, much like now. Then, the Middle East oil cartel, OPEC, jacked up prices and cut supply, and the economic crisis got worse.  Again, like now. Inflation spiralled. Mortgage rates went up to 20%. Yet, at its worst, youth unemployment then was only half as bad as it is today. 

I am surprised that there are no protests. It is perplexing. My generation was unruly. Pundits referred to us as the “youth problem”. For us, the culture and economy was not working, and a counterculture emerged. We protested the conditions of our day; youth job programs were soon set up. 

Youth today seem passive. They seem connected through social media, but not through action. Students during the pandemic missed a critical time in life, of socialization, making friends, figuring out who they were and who they wanted to become.  Now, youth unemployment is making this isolation lifestyle permanent.  It is a national problem. Young men in particular seem to have dropped out, and don’t even show up in many statistics.  

Of course, I also see and meet many young Canadians who are incredible. But for far too many in Gen Z, or is it Gen zed, the Canadian dream is out of reach. 

It’s going to get worse. Elon Musk, the guy who pays only 3% in taxes, predicts that unemployment will soon reach 20%. 

And yet, at the same time, there are some half a million job vacancies in Canada. Many of these do not pay enough to live on. Employers demand experience, but won’t give that first job. Some jobs are just so nasty that nobody wants them. Give it to a robot, or to a third world country, respond the corporate managers.

So, what can a boomer say to young Canadians in this dilemma?  

One way to imagine the future of work is to see the workplace as three large categories of work which are being constantly transformed. 

The first category is people who produce, build or make things. These used to be called blue collar jobs. Producers work on farms, in factories, and in construction. Many of their jobs are disappearing. A century ago, 30% of workers were farmers, now it is less than 2%. In the past fifty years, manufacturing went from one in five jobs to one in ten. 

Most production jobs are tough, and hard on the body. Outside of union jobs, the pay and benefits are often not great.  It will not improve. Machines, including robots, do more and more of the work.  Robots don’t join unions, take holidays, or demand pension.

Of course, production jobs will exist in the future, but fewer of them, and they will constantly require new skills.  Workers will need to keep up to date with technology. That means going back to college for training specific to the new industries. 

Jobs in the building trades, for example, will always be needed. Statistics Canada recently listed between 140,000 and 180,000 job vacancies in the “trades, transport & operators” category.  Real Estate Magazine says 80,000 of these unfilled jobs are in home construction. It is estimated that, in 2033, Canada will need over 70,000 new housing construction managers, but only 35,000 will have been trained.  

In short, yes, there will be opportunities. It will also be rough over the long haul.  

The second broad work category is thinking jobs. Thinking jobs are found in law, finance, media, science, engineering, bureaucracy and administration. They used to be called white collar jobs. They grew in importance after the second world war, but they too are casualties of progress. 

First, typist pools and mail rooms disappeared.  Now, everyone is at risk of being replaced by technology. Just recently, Bell Canada quietly fired hundreds of mid-level managers. Computers can do tax returns, manage a financial portfolio, write a will, or replace a human on the help desk. This wave of change has barely begun. Artificial intelligence can increasingly do more of the thinking work, much cheaper, and not demand vacations.

Does this dreary picture make university worthless?  Absolutely not.

Universities prepare students for life, to become well-rounded, well-educated citizens. Many will succeed in the jobs that do remain. Still others will have learned the skills for a healthy life in spite of the uncertain job market.

In all this, Canada needs intellectual elites to emerge with from the educational ecosystem. These are people with the talent to become national leaders in their fields, the brains that can drive the innovation economy and lead the nation. Canada needs them. It is the good side of elitism. We celebrate elite athletes and artists. The same must apply to intellectual elites.   

Much of the American success since WWII can be attributed to the innovation ecosystem they created. The United States attracted the best and the brightest from around the world. The Silicon Valley, with massive defense spending, spawned the internet based industries. Boston became a hub of innovation for the defense budget. That American advantage is now ruptured, to borrow Mr. Carney’s term. Under Trump, research funds have been cut, and thinkers made unwelcome. 

This opens opportunities for other countries to attract talent. China now pays some top scientists a $420,000 to $700,000 signing bonuses. Germany gives easy visas to skilled workers. Britain gives visas to graduates of a top university. Japan pays PhD graduates two years to job-hunt.  

Canada is a late contender. Overall, only half as much is spent on research as in most G7 countries, calculated as a share of GDP.  With a nation-building innovation strategy, we could do more.  

As a start, Canada is now offering easier visas to doctors and researchers.  The government has announced funding of up to $1.7 billion over 12 years to attract and support researchers.  This is a start, but not enough. Canada must go big or go home.  

But here’s the rub. To make innovation a nation-building success, universities need to be a national responsibility. A national strategy is needed to win the brains race, and to make Canada a global innovation leader. 

All this is important, but it does not mean good jobs for those who are not medalists in the brains race. 

This brings us to the third category of future work… caring jobs. 

The demand for workers will be in areas where humans cannot be replaced. These are “caring” jobs that require a human touch. Think of medicine, personal support workers, child care, teaching, hospitality, music and the arts, staff in bars and restaurants, retail, small business, the local trades who fix your house, even gig work. These are all essential to a healthy society. In these jobs, technology is ever-present, supportive, but the human element is critical. 

Caring jobs are filled by a variety of people, with every possible level of education. These are people who like to deal with other people. It makes them feel alive.

Unfortunately, caring jobs are often woefully underpaid, and poorly supported.  Their unions are weak. Many caring jobs don’t offer a living wage, benefits or pensions. They are not valued, even though they are essential to a healthy society. 

If we look at what the future of work will be like, in all three categories, it is not promising. If unemployment grows, it will be very difficult for too many people to have a modest and reliable living.  They will go from job to job, going broke in between. To me, this argues for a different vision of how we educate, how we value work, and how we reward it. It argues for a different approach by governments to how we invest in jobs.

Currently, governments offer corporations incentives to invest in Canada, or in a province. They use taxpayer money to give grants, and tax breaks. That is great for the corporations. 

The alternative is for the government role is to build infrastructure, and to offer investors a safe and trustworthy business environment. A key part of what Canada can offer is an educated workforce. Essential rules and regulations must exist; there is always room to improve. 

To ensure the workforce is educated and available, an educations strategy is a start. But it is not enough. Youth today need to anticipate a career with interruptions. Or, as I experienced it, multiple careers. Government services must recognize this, and make sure those interruptions are not disastrous for families. Added to this, governments must bridge the pay gap in caring jobs, so the jobs get filled. 

One solution is a guaranteed basic income. The case for a BGI has been made by Canadians from every political stripe. The late Conservative Senator Hugh Segal was legendary in his support.  I examined a GBI in a previous podcast, so will be brief here.

A guaranteed income could eliminate 40% of poverty.  It would support the workforce between jobs, as people learn new skills. It would top up the income of people in caring jobs, as artists, in retail sales, serving in bars and restaurants, as personal support workers, or in child care.  Small businesses in particular would be helped. The estimated cost varies according to how a GBI is implemented, but it would be expensive.

Yet it may be the only option that can truly make a difference. Some conservatives bemoan the national debt that is being passed on to future generations. But that is simplistic. The national debt is manageable with a growing economy. The ecological debt is growing even faster. 

Even less manageable, young Canadians are investing in their education as if everything was normal. They take on personal debt, put in years of study, and hope the jobs and the dream will be there. It is a gamble. The dream is elusive. 

There will not be many jobs for life, except perhaps as leader of the opposition. 

But seriously, nobody can predict exactly what jobs will exist in five, fifteen, let alone fifty years. We can predict trends.  Yes, there will be jobs making things, but fewer of them. Yes, there will still be thinking jobs, but fewer of them. If a computer or robot can do the work, people will be replaced.  

We can grasp the importance of winning the brain race, and of a national education strategy. We can see that a guaranteed basic income can help people keep afloat between jobs, and can top up incomes in caring jobs. 

It is those caring jobs that will be in demand, and Canada needs this work done.  It is a matter of defining what we value… a topic that was the subject of Mark Carney’s book several years back. A guaranteed basic income combined with a low income job will allow people to live decently.  More than that, it would provide young Canadians with a backstop as they re-refine how a democracy and an economy should function in this strange new world.  

Universities already do their best to anticipate the future. They create programs they believe will offer good prospects, and work hard to graduate healthy, happy, productive people.  They want Canada to win the brain race.

If you are part of Gen Z, this is not a message of hope.  Canada needs a national innovation and education strategy, and it is not coming soon. It would require the federal government to assume responsibility for higher education, and for all the credentialed professions and trades. Lawyers, engineers, doctors and nurses across Canada would have the same standards. So too would skilled trades. None of this is a giant leap. Provinces talk. Professionals cooperate. National organizations exist. All this can be taken one step further.

It is possible, but highly unlikely, that provinces collaborate and adopt identical legislation. This would take decades.

The more likely, but long-shot option could be for Ottawa to establish an education department in concept to fund and regulate colleges and universities. With the framework of a system in place, provinces could be invited to join. They would be invited cede responsibility for higher education to Ottawa.  Higher education, and research, would become a nation-building initiative. 

In the same vein, Ottawa could pass legislation in principle to create a GBI.  Provinces would be invited to sign up as pilot projects. Several provinces might well accept the offer. These provinces would be the laboratory for a national program. The widespread implementation of a BGI would follow if and only if it delivers results at an affordable cost. 

What this adds up to is a simple message. For youth today, times ahead are going to be rough. If you want those prospects to improve, there are potential solutions, but they are not on the agenda. Ideas like a GBI seem abstract, unrelated to the immediate need for jobs, or housing.  Yet a GBI and a national innovation strategy might just be the only sensible answer. And I can assure you, they will not be implemented unless you demand them. 

Be unruly. Be a problem. Be the next great generation.

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You have been listening to the Brain Race on Canada Re-imagined, season three: After the Cataclysm

I’m Patrick Esmonde-White, totally responsible for this podcast. My theme music is by Tom Plant. My thanks to the Harbinger Media Network for their support.

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